Sunday, March 23, 2008

Tibet Question : Options for China and Implications for India

Dr. Adityanjee

INTRODUCTION:
The events in Tibet following the March 10th demonstrations on the 49th anniversary of Dalai Lama’s historic flight from Lhasa to India in 1959 will continue to have reverberations internationally for some time to come. Despite restoring public order and peace by using brute force, the Chinese government has failed miserably to quell the suppressed feelings of Tibetans. It is likely that Tibetan resistance will continue unabated albeit it may take more novel forms of protest. The Beijing Olympics will definitely fuel the fire of Tibetan cries for self-determination and independence as from a Tibetan perspective it would be now or never kind of strategic opportunity. Although the six million Tibetans are ill equipped militarily to take on the most powerful Communist Chinese empire, the timing of these protests is “historically correct” and has the potential to fundamentally alter the future geo-political events in whole of the Central Asia. The governor of TAR in China has already declared “peoples’ war” on the Tibetan protesters. Chinese premier Wen Jiabao has declared these protests as life and death issue for China. He squarely blamed Dalai Lama for organizing these “premeditated, well-orchestrated and well-planned violent protests” to sour the Olympics. Wen Jiabao has expressed appreciation of the “correct” steps taken by the Indian Friends in New Delhi. Dalai Lama has lamented the Indian government’s tendency to genuflect to Chinese interests as supreme while offering to resign if violence spreads.
The situation on ground in Tibet is changing very fast. A critical and decisive moment has been reached in the six decades long Tibetan struggle for self-determination. The future roadmap for Tibetan independence will be predicated on the level of discontent in Tibet as well as on the response of the international community in further preventing cultural genocide. This paper will not serve as a factual news report or as an updated latest bulletin but will analyze the geo-political events in Tibet from a multi-dimensional strategic perspective. Some of the ground realities and facts may have changed by the time this paper goes into press since the pace of change is fast indeed.
BACKGROUND:
Since Chinese invasion and occupation of Tibet in 1951, there has been ongoing repression sponsored by the PLA and the Chinese Communist party. According to a Chinese military document between March 1959 and September 1960, 87,000 Tibetan people were killed. Despite recent attempts to improve the physical infrastructure and economic conditions in Tibet and linking Lhasa with Beijing by railroad, Tibetans’ genuine grievances remain unresolved. There has been increase in the level of repression and arrests leading to recurrent demands for independence and self-determination among the Tibetan youth living in the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR). Truly, the designation of any “autonomous region” in China is a sham because the Chinese Communist Party wants total control, uniformity and centralization of power.
The simmering tensions have been exacerbated further by the Chinese policy of demographic invasion of Tibet by the Han Chinese. Not the Han Chinese now out number the ethnic Tibetans in TAR and are in the positions of power in the TAR administrative setup. Han Chinese have a patronizing, paternalistic and racist view of the Tibetans. Racial discrimination against Tibetans has been alleged from time to time. China does have a history of colonialism that is not acknowledged by the Chinese Communist Party. Communist China has not formally repudiated the history of colonialism by the imperialistic predecessors. The problems in Tibet and in southwest China are linked to west-ward expansion of the Han Chinese nation into areas originally inhabited by other nationalities (ethnic minorities) that refuse to see themselves as Chinese. Like independent Tibet, province of Xinjiang (Sinkiang) was briefly independent as East Turkistan, or Uighurstan, in 1933. A part of it was under Soviet control from 1945 to 1949. Its population is still roughly 55 percent Uighurs and Kazakhs who are Turkic-speaking. Some Tibetan majority areas were also transferred to Han-majority provinces - Qinghai, Sichuan and Gansu where the current Tibetan uprising has spread.
Last year, the Chinese Communist Party led government introduced a ridiculous law interfering with Buddhist religious practices on reincarnation of living Buddha. The PRC attempt was to pave the way for a Chinese Communist party “approved and sanctioned” kosher reincarnation of Dalai Lama when the current incumbent on Living Buddha seat dies. They have a time-tested strategy, which is to wait for the death of Dalai Lama and anointhis successor - like their earlier selection of the Panchen Lama.
The Chinese government was very poor in predicting the level of possible unrest related to PRC’s hosting of Olympics in Beijing from August 8-24th 2008. Hu Jintao who had lorded over Tibet during the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre had firmly and brutely crushed down any semblance of rebellion in Tibet at that time earning him praise in the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party enabling his future ascension to the supreme party leadership. Hu Jintao’s theories of harmonious society, peaceful and scientific development were predicated upon increased economic prosperity to be shared not only amongst the Han Chinese but also with the ethnic minorities including Tibetans. Prosperity, however, does not inoculate against nationalist sentiments. Relative prosperity sometimes forces the masses to focus on other cultural, civilizational, nationalistic and socio-spiritual issues besides the mundane bread and butter issues. The ferocity of the spontaneous uprising was not appreciated and understood correctly by the PRC government leading to clumsy military police response with loss of more than 100 lives by unofficial accounts. Hu Jintao and his ruling clique felt supremely confidant that the economic prosperity will tone down any negative response on part of Tibetans and merely sealing the approach routes to Everest during the Olympic torch ceremony will prevent any ethnic Tibetan from raising the Tibetan flag during that ceremony.
BEIJING OLYMPICS AND THE ORIGINAL SCRIPT:
In the eyes of human rights observers China never had a legitimate right to host the Olympics in Beijing because of the poor human rights record of the Chinese government, particularly since the 1989 bloody crackdown on Tiananmen Square. In July 2001, when Beijing was awarded the Games, many human rights campaigners expressed their utter surprise since Beijing is regularly credited with the worst human rights violations. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) authorities including the IOC President Jacques Rogge had hoped that hosting the Olympic Games would serve to improve the China’s human rights record. This was perhaps logical culmination of the “constructive engagement” policy of the West towards China since 1970s. French baron Pierre de Coubertin, who resurrected the ancient Olympic Games in 1896, firmly believed that sports and the Games could help create better human beings. For some Olympic watchers, the violent demonstrations in Tibet come as no surprise and are something the IOC can’t be expected to resolve.
For China, the opportunity to host the Olympics was a way of pronouncing to the world that China has arrived on scene as an economic giant. It was supposed to be the inaugural ball for the dame China to be presented and introduced to high and mighty in the international elite society. It was to be national honor, glory and splendor which supposedly would have blindsided the world that would be so mesmerized by the dazzling royal celebrations of the newest Chinese emperor of the Communist caucus. PRC should have realized that the Olympics are more than a commercial, industrial or mercantile venture. Recent actions of police brutality in Tibet only serve to undermine the reputation of both China and the IOC. China cannot be allowed to gamble with the life and liberty of the occupied people of Tibet so close to the Olympics although the Chinese government would very much like to silence any further dissent in Tibet.
TIBET REVOLT AND OLYMPIC BOYCOTT:
Prince Charles had announced his personal boycott of Beijing Olympics on grounds of principles long ago before the current wave of protests started. Film director Steven Spielberg also withdrew in February as an artistic adviser to the opening and closing ceremonies on grounds of China’s tacit support for Sudanese government’s bloodshed in Darfur. European calls for a boycott of the opening ceremony predate the current wave of protests in Tibet. The violent protests in Tibet are forcing governments and human rights campaigners to re-examine their approach to the Beijing Olympic Games. Moves to punish China over its handling of violence in Tibet have regained momentum with a novel suggestion for a mini-boycott of the grand opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. Human Rights Watch, which has not advocated a total boycott, is likely to urge heads of state not to attend the opening ceremony. Such a novel protest by world leaders and dignitaries would be a huge slap in the face for the Chinese Communist Party.
French foreign minister and the founder of Medecine’ Sans Frontiere’ Bernard Kouchner is spearheading the possible opening ceremony boycott with other European Union foreign ministers. IOC President Jacques Rogge expects many heads of state — including President Bush, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy — to attend the opening ceremony. China will desperately try to stop any boycott movement from gathering further steam. Premier Wen Jiabao openly accused the “Dalai clique” of orchestrating the violence against the Han Chinese and Hui Muslims in order to taint the Beijing Olympics. Tibetan protestors chanted a prayer and waved Tibetan flags at a protest near the IOC headquarters in Lausanne, Switzerland. The IOC is under pressure to clearly denounce the killings in Lhasa and force China to stop further repression.
TAIWAN REFERENDUM AND TIBET:
China has adroitly tied the twin issues of Tibet and Taiwan together. Owing to skillful Chinese diplomatic histrionics, all countries having diplomatic relations with China are supposed to ritually sing songs about their “One China Policy” and Tibet being an inalienable part of China. In the same vein, the Chinese communist government has refused to have an open and direct dialogue with Dalai Lama on the grounds that he should first renounce independence for Tibet and admit that Taiwan is a province of China as a precondition for talks on genuine autonomy.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao indirectly threatened the Taiwanese voters to reject ballot question on membership of United Nations as Republic of Taiwan, warning that cross-straits tensions would rise if the referendum succeeds, destabilizing the whole Asia-pacific region. It is likely that Taiwanese elections will be won by Pro-Beijing KMT candidate Ma who advocates fostering closer cross-straits relations between Beijing and Taipei and rejects the need for referendum. In the final days of campaigning before Taiwan’s presidential elections, both major political parties in Taiwan have condemned Beijing’s suppression of protests in Tibet. The uprising and the use of military police in Tibet will bring a wave of fear among Taiwanese voters and will definitely undermine China’s efforts to encourage self-governing Taiwan to move toward reunification with the mainland. Though the March 23rd referendum in Taiwan may not be successful in declaring de facto independence, strong results in the referendum will further hasten the demise of future possibility of communist authoritarian rule.
LIKELY TIBETAN GOALS AND EXPECTATIONS:
Like it happens in any liberation movement, the Tibetan polity is now divided owing to geographic reasons, lack of adequate communications, and continued repression. The rift among the leadership is very apparent from the statements released over the last few days. Though for very obvious reasons, there may be confusion about the actual goals, genuine aspirations and the ultimate demands of Tibetan people can not be trivialized anymore. Geo-political events generate mass expectations. These expectations and hopes alter the course of future events initiating a chain reaction that can not be stopped. That critical threshold has already been achieved in Tibet.
A) Response from India-based Tibetan Refugees:There is definitely a generational divide among the India-based Tibetan refugees. Tibetan Youth Congress is no longer satisfied with the talk of genuine autonomy and the “middle way”. Their goal is total independence from China. There are a large number of young passionate Tibetans who advocate complete independence as opposed to “meaningful autonomy” as suggested by the Dalai Lama. This younger generation is very restive and possibly can not be silenced anymore as they believe Dalai Lama’s non-violent struggle has led them nowhere and has increased Chinese repression and cultural subjugation of Tibet. For these young Tibetan activists, “non-violence” is not a sacred creed but independence from China is. China’s investment of $ 6 billion in Beijing-Lhasa railroad has increased the level of suspicion in this segment of Tibetan refugees in India.
B) Response from West-based Tibetans:Tibetan refugees based in West are unlikely to be satisfied with “autonomy- only solutions”. These people have witnessed liberation of former Warsaw pact countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania etc), Baltic Republics (Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania) and Balkan states (Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia) in Europe under their very eyes with very sympathetic treatment from the international community. West-based Tibetan diaspora is more educated, more economically resourceful and more connected with international events and community. These diaspora aspire the same levels of liberty, democracy and equality for their compatriots back home as they enjoy in their adoptive homes in Europe and the US. A second class citizenship status under the over-lordship of the Han Chinese under an authoritarian communist regime shall no longer be acceptable to Western based Tibetan diaspora who mingle with the likes of Richard Gere and Uma Therman and the other Hollywood glitterati.
C) Response from Dalai Lama:
For tactical and pragmatic reasons Dalai Lama and others in Dharamshala had scaled back their demands for total independence and were willing to accept genuine autonomy and a healthy respect for Tibetan culture. Advocating for a comprehensive approach to resolve this problem that takes into account the benefits to all parties involved, Dalai Lama has been firm in commitment to a mutually beneficial policy, the ‘Middle-Way’ approach. Since 2002, talks were going on between envoys of Dalai Lama and the Chinese government with no solution in sight owing to duplicitous attitude of the PRC. He has expressed his solidarity with those Tibetans presently undergoing repression and ill-treatment. The Dalai Lama has acknowledged his helplessness in the face of such widespread protests as does not and can not control the events on the ground in Tibet. He has also threatened to quit as the head of the government-in-exile if the violence continues. He understands that the attitude inside Tibet has hardened and there has been significant criticism of his “failed” non-violent approach. Dalai Lama has implicitly admitted that Tibetans are no longer willing to follow his “middle way” approach. He does reiterate that Tibetans have had to live in a state of constant fear, intimidation and suspicion under Chinese repression. However, in spite of current wave of killings of Tibetans, he is prepared to pursue the ‘Middle-Way’ policy and continue the dialogue with the Chinese Government. He, however, very pragmatically has not foreclosed the option of total independence if the Tibetan people wanted that.
D) Response from Dharamshala based Government of Tibet in exile:At this juncture, the leadership for the movement seems to be coming from inside the Tibet. The government-in-exile with or without Dalai Lama may be forced to react passively to the events happening in Tibet. Clearly, they did not initiate the demonstration by the Buddhist monks on March 10th in Lhasa. For sake of unity they will have to harmonize their future course of action in sync with the aspirations of resident Tibetans who are braving the Chinese repressive machinery. This may mean formally and openly accepting the demands for total independence of Tibet.
E) Future escalation of protests by Tibetans in ATR:Though temporarily, China will be able to suppress the uprising by use of brute force analogous to the situation in Myanmar, the Beijing Olympics have opened a strategic window for the so-far frozen issue of Tibetan independence. Recent reports suggest movement of PLA units with tanks and heavy armored divisions into Tibet. The Tibetan protests will neither stop nor cease. There will be more and more novel ways to attract attention to Chinese occupation of Tibet and the cultural genocide. PRC is fighting a losing battle of wits against the Tibetan freedom fighters as the world has transformed. Despite mounting loss of life of resident Tibetans, Chinese repressive machinery would not be able to quell the bug of Tibetan independence as it has under-estimated the Tibetan nationalistic sentiment.
WHAT WOULD CHINA DO?
China currently does not have very many options dealing with the Tibetan uprising. Either it can negotiate autonomy with Dalai Lama soon enough or it can continue with the repressive policies of total control on TAR. China has ruled out the first option. Tibet’s Communist Party secretary, Zhang Qingli, lashed out at the Dalai Lama warning “we are engaged in a fierce battle of blood and fire with the Dalai clique, a life-and-death struggle between the foe and us.” The same sentiments have been expressed by the Premier Wen Jiabao.
Demonization of Dalai Lama:
Pursuing the policy of total Sinification of TAR, the China will continue to demonize Dalai Lama at every given opportunity. Secretary Zhang Qingli recently commented that “the Dalai is a jackal in Buddhist monk’s robes, an evil spirit with a human face and the heart of a beast.” Premier Wen Jiabao claims that Chinese government has evidence linking the “Dalai Clique” to the deadly unrest against Chinese rule in Tibet. Labeling Dalai Lama’s actions as “hypocritical” Wen accused him of trying to sabotage the Beijing Olympics by organizing these violent incidents in TAR in a premeditated and conspiratorial manner.
Positive Media Management and Counter-offensive:
The Chinese Government will try to “spin” the international media in three directions:
1. Chinese government will try to discourage any analogies between the suppression of the current Tibetan protests and the bloody crackdown on 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square. The role of the PLA in restoring peace and order will be camouflaged. The Chinese officials will claim that the Tibetan police and the military police are dealing with the protests, not the PLA. The number of deaths will be minimized and the use of tanks and heavy armored vehicles will be denied.
2. The government authorities will make exhaustive efforts to ensure that as few people as possible, inside or outside China, hear anything but the official version. Independent international media will be discredited.
3. Efforts will be made to portray the Han Chinese and the Hui Muslims living in TAR as the innocent victims of brutalities by Tibetan hooligans. Media reports, videos and internet will be effectively utilized to put the Tibetan demonstrators in a negative light.
Total Information Control and Management:
The Chinese government will take steps further steps to control the outflow of information from Tibet using physical and virtual controls on international media.
1. The visas of foreign correspondents will be cancelled or restricted. Physical access to TAR will be limited and reporters will be kept confined to their hotels. Under the garb of providing security, government minders and translators will prevent foreign correspondents from interviewing Tibetans.
2. Access to electronic media support will be denied. Non-functional fax machines and slowed down internet will become access will become the means. The authorities will block all Internet sites relating to Tibet.
Domestic newspapers, TV programs, and Internet sites will carry only articles produced by the official Xinhua news agency. Chinese censors will block out international media.
Security Lockdown on Tibet:
The Chinese government forces including Tibetan police, military police and the PLA will blanket Tibet and the areas inhabited by Tibetans in provinces neighboring Tibet, such as Gansu, Qinghai, and Sichuan. The repressive state machinery including the PLA would be hyperactive and crush any signs of dissent over the next few months. The mounting civilian casualties will not deter the Government machinery from exercising lethal means for restoring “peace and order” in Tibet.
Continued Focus on Economic Prosperity:
The Chinese government will keep its focus on the need to keep the economy growing. The government will try to keep unemployment low and inflation low so as to prevent escalation of domestic unrest in other areas. Shortage of food has led to increased prices of pork. Consumer price index has shot up to more than 8%. The Chinese government will try to boost economy in Tibet as a means of pacifying the Tibetan masses while preventing spread of unrest in other provinces.
Contingency Plan for Olympics:
Though staging Olympics peacefully is an important goal for the Chinese government, if push comes to shove, China will choose its continued control and hegemony over Tibet in preference over hosting Olympics successfully. Since Chinese government considers control of Tibet as a life or death issue, it would not hesitate to sacrifice Olympics if things get too hot in Tibet leading to a total boycott of the Games.
WHAT SHOULD THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DO?
Tibet had declared unilateral independence from the Chinese empire in 1911 following the fall of the Manchu dynasty. Tibet was de facto an independent nation from 1911 till 1951 when it was invaded by the expansionist and hegemonistic Communist regime under the leadership of Mao. There were failed opportunities in 1945-1951 when Tibet could have been offered membership of UN as an independent sovereign nation. Thereafter, the inter-national community including the UN, USA and USSR have a background of serial non-actions following the Chinese invasion of Tibet in 1951, in 1959, in 1962 and more recently in 1989.
Western nations are reluctant to take action against China’s crackdown on protests in Tibet, fearing Beijing’s growing economic and diplomatic clout and for their place in its huge consumer market. The main reaction, so far, in Europe and America has been to express concern over the reported deaths in the Himalayan region and call for restraint by China. The European Commission said it was worried about the violence. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urged China to engage in a dialogue with the Dalai Lama. The West this as an internal affair of China having conceded Chinese sovereignty over Tibet. The lure of economic opportunities in China for Western nations will outweigh any concerns about human rights.
UN Response:
It is unlikely that the UN will do anything on Tibetan issue as China is one of the members of Security Council’s P5 and is robustly supported by an equally authoritarian Russia led by Putin and Medvedev. Secretary General Ban ki Moon dare not antagonize China as he is trying to use Chinese influence in Darfur crisis.
US Response:
US will officially take a middle road and will continue to exhort China to improve its human rights record while asking for restoration of peace in Tibet. There will be increased transmission from Radio Free Asia to Tibet. The CIA may increase its contact with Tibetan diaspora based in the US and Europe and may increase funding for resistance. The current lame duck US administration will not make Tibet a defining issue in the Sino-US relationship as China seems to be bankrolling the US government deficit that runs now into trillions of dollars. George W. Bush will go to attend the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony as planned earlier. The speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi is currently on a five day tour of India and will be visiting Dharamshala. Nancy Pelosi was instrumentally in getting the Dalai Lama honored recently by the Congressional Medal of Freedom despite Chinese protests. However, the direction of a new US administration in 2009 can not be anticipated at this juncture.
US civil society will have a different perspective governed more by moralistic considerations contrasted with the mercantilist instincts of the US government. Already, Stephen Speilberg has resigned from his Beijing Olympics responsibilities. Richard Gere is spearheading American Buddhists solidarity with Tibetan cause. The US civil society will continue to extend its support for Tibetan independence as the Dalai Lama is a highly revered figure in the US and has many Americans followers who have converted to Buddhism. These US converts to Buddhism have economic clout and will continue to bankroll the Tibetan resistance based in the West.
IOC Response:
The IOC has been forced to lobby against boycott calls and the possibility of the games turning into a political demonstration. The IOC’s basic contention is that as a sporting organization it is unable to pressure China or any other country on political matters. The IOC believes that a total boycott would only hurt the athletes, as shown by the political boycotts of the 1976, 1980 and 1984 Olympics. The IOC will not link the issue of Tibetan independence or human rights record of China with successful completion of the Olympic Games under any scenario. Admitting that kind of linkage will be akin to IOC eating a crow because IOC should not have awarded the Olympic Games to Beijing in the first place when it did in July 2001 on human rights record of China.
Russian Response:
Concerned about its own separatist problems in Chechnya, Russia will denounce any movement for censor of Chinese government in the UN for its brutal handling of Tibetan uprisings. Furthermore, Russia has linked unrest in Tibet with unilateral declaration of independence in Kosovo. Russia will continue to support China in maintaining its control over TAR and will lend moral, diplomatic and logistic support to China on this issue as Russia feels encircled by the NATO in Eastern Europe and will not budge on this issue. Russia will actively work for further consolidation and enlargement of SCO in conjunction with China to keep US influence from spreading further in Central Asia.
Others:
There will be stray calls for boycott of Olympics coming from former East European countries that were under Soviet domination during the cold war era.
The Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch should intervene and asked the Chinese authorities to allow an independent investigation into the situation in Tibet. The response from the international community will be, largely, determined by the events unfolding on the ground. If the Tibetan revolt is successfully contained by China, the international community will keep quiet and continue to do business as usual with China. If the events on ground turn tectonic, international community will adopt “holier than thou” attitude and sing paeans in the praise of cause of human rights violations and the valiant struggle of Tibetans.
The international community has a responsibility to prevent any further physical and cultural genocide of Tibet under Chinese occupation. International community should leave aside short-term economic, mercantile interests and focus on the nationalistic aspirations of six million Tibetans who have been subjugated and dispossessed since 1951 having attained their freedom from the imperialistic power in 1911. If a tiny Kosovo or Macedonia can achieve independence why not six million Tibetans?
WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO?
India’s response to the current revolt in Tibet against Chinese occupation would depend upon the kind of perspective one takes. What should be deemed as the optimal response shall be determined by a complex array of competing interests within the pluralistic, corrupt and chaotic Indian society that is somewhat fractured currently. The overall Indian response needs to be distinguished from the response of the party in power (Congress) or the current lame duck UPA government of India that is on its last legs and is unable to come out with a coherent response. The overall response has to be multi-dimensional, finely tuned and pro-active instead of being reactive, taking into consideration our historical people to people relations with both Tibetan people and Chinese people. Indian response should also consider the historical facts including the Chinese Aggression against India in 1962 and subsequent Chinese hostility towards India’s interests in South Asia and in international fora. China’s transfer of nuclear technology and ballistic missile technology to Pakistan and China’s “Pearl of Strings” strategy to contain India should be factored into any decision making process. Any Indian response must take into account previous Indian attempts to appease Chinese under Jawahar Lal Nehru’s failed policies in 1950s and 1960s and perpetual Chinese recourse to ultimate “victim-hood” role. Indian response needs to take into account the vigorous but unnecessary jubilation expressed by India in 1971 at the time of Communist China getting its permanent seat in the Security Council of the United Nation and India under Jawahar Lal Nehru forgoing the American offer of permanent seat in Security Council in the 1950s in favor of communist Chinese claim.
A) Response from Indian civilizational and spiritual leadership:
India had been the civilizational guru of China as Buddhism spread to China from India. Chinese pilgrims came to India during ancient times, attended universities and monasteries and took back wealth of spiritual knowledge from India. The spiritual leaders from India should exert their moral pressure on Chinese government expressing concern for the welfare of our Buddhist brethren. The Indian spiritual leaders should express their solidarity with the Dalai Lama for early resolution of the Tibetan grievances be it autonomy or complete independence. A memorandum to the Chinese embassy in New Delhi or a press release from various spiritual leaders expressing their regret at the loss of life under repressive crackdown by the Chinese government would be useful for the Tibetan cause. The spiritual leaders should exhort the Chinese government to engage in substantive dialogue with the Dalai Lama directly and through his representatives so that long-standing issues with regard to Tibet may be resolved. The spiritual leaders of Indic religions should send a strong message to the Chinese Government that what is happening inside Tibet and what the Chinese government is doing to the Tibetans is not justified ethically, morally and spiritually.
B) Response from Indian Civil society institutions:India has large array of civil society institutions and a historic tradition to help the needy and the down-trodden that dates back from ancient times. Jawahar Lal Nehru sent the Dr. Dwarka Nath Kotnis medical mission to China to help the Chinese civil society during the time of their need. There are a number of Non-governmental organizations that can channelize Indian peoples’ help to their Buddhist Tibetan brothers during the time of their need. This may include humanitarian help, e.g. sending medical missions to Lhasa, sending care-packages, life-saving medications and of course money to the families of the Tibetan’s killed in the PLA atrocities. Such help should be sent privately by Indian citizens, residents or non-resident irrespective of the Government of India’s official and diplomatic response. These helpful altruistic gestures towards fellow Buddhists will gain us respect and trust from fellow civilizational allies. The NGOs have significant role in mobilizing public opinion, issuing press statements, sending emails to IOC, Chinese government officials, UN secretary general etc. The NGOs can also arrange seminars and discussion groups in conjunction with other Human rights organizations on the plight of oppressed Tibetan people living under occupation.
C) Response from Indian media:The print and electronic media in India is free of government control as the Indian constitution allows freedom of speech. This sets a stage where the media’s response to this crisis is divorced from the government response. The Indian media does have the rights and luxury of not toeing to the government response and should continue to adopt an independent viewpoint without getting bullied by Chinese government pronouncements threatening dire consequences for Indo-Chinese relations in future. The Indian media should also disregard the calls for non-interference in China’s internal affairs notably by Indian communist lackeys. The Indian media can rise to the occasion and document the atrocities on the Tibetan population without the fear of strained relations with China.
D) Response from Indian Communists Parties:The leaders of Indian left, especially the CPM have so far refused to condemn the violence in Tibet, described by the Dalai Lama as “ by the Chinese government. Addressing a press conference in New Delhi, Sitaram Yechury said the clashes were an internal affair of China. SR Yechury rhetorically asked how the Indian nation would react if any other nation were to raise the issue of what is happening in Kashmir. Indian left especially the CPM will refuse to acknowledge Chinese repression in Tibet. Indian Communists will continue to justify Chinese atrocities despite mounting evidence.
E) Response from non-communist political parties:There will be hardly any worthwhile response from the Congress party organization. The right wing Bharatiya Janata Party will denounce Chinese actions and will exhort Government to take stronger measures, adopt a strict policy and join hands with other nations and raise the matter at international fora. They will continue to highlight the communist betrayal in 1962; when China attacked India, the united CPI did not condemn the Chinese aggression. The socialists will predictably take a stronger line against China.
Response from current Government of India
Tactical response:The Government of India has come out with a two-pronged response. On one hand, the government of India has arrested Tibetan Youth and demonstrators from staging a March from Dharashala to Lhasa and has prevented any damage to Chinese embassy. The government has also issued a cautious appeal to initiate a dialogue so as to resolve the grievance without indulging in violence. This is a politically and diplomatically correct initial tactical response. However, this Tibetan issue is not going to disappear and as events are unfolding the response needs to be carefully calibrated taking Indian interests into consideration. Unfortunately, successive governments have not enunciated a long-term Tibet policy.
Long-term Strategic Response and Tibet Policy:
It is not, it was not, and it will be not in the long-term strategic interests of India that Tibet was occupied by expansionist and hegemonistic China in 1951. It remains our long-term strategic interest for a free and independent Tibet to remain as a buffer state between China and India. The strategic blunders of Himalayan proportions committed by Jawahar Lal Nehru despite ample written warnings by Sardar Patel need to be corrected eventually albeit after a thoughtful consideration leveraging on the events and ground realities.
Whether the current communist, dictatorial regime in China will last long is debatable. Despite economic growth and prosperity in China, there are thousands of instances of social unrest. With an inflation of 8% currently, shortage of food, rampant corruption, popular revolt against communist rule can not be excluded at a future date. Any policy planning needs to take into consideration a scenario where popular events akin to 1989 Tianaman Square events may take over the Chinese regime leading to break-up of the communist empire with secession by the Inner Mongolia, Tibet, East Turkistan and unilateral declaration of Independence by Taiwan. If the mighty British, French, Spanish and Soviet communist empires could be broken down under the might of popular uprisings, so could be the Communist Chinese Empire. International community failed to take strategic advantage of 1989 Tiananmen Square uprisings. India also failed to do the same. In future, in order to have some leverage to settle the border dispute with China, India will have to play hard with China as there is no other option. We have to remember that China considers entire Arunachal Pradesh as “Outer Tibet” and has reasserted its claim on the whole province. Furthermore, besides Tibet, the greater China concept incorporates Sikkim, Bhutan, Nepal and Myanmar to be the five fingers of the Chinese sphere of strategic influence and hegemony.
China unfortunately is not a cute, cuddly poodle that has to be hugged unconditionally all the time. Rather it is a complex, Communist, and Confuscian Chimera that could come to gnaw into your body flesh. China has refused to resolve the border issue and continues to strike at India’s interests world-wide in a skillful manner. Bottom-line is that India will have to adopt a tough long-term China policy predicated upon re-emergence of Tibet as an independent and free buffer state between the two Asian giants. It may sound as pipe dream but any geo-political scenario is possible. India should be ready with any plan B that is contrary to the popular notions of strategic thinking on Tibet.
Undue genuflection to China on Tibet issue has proved counterproductive since 1951 onwards. Perhaps, the time has come when India should grant Tibetan refugees the right to organize and indulge in political activities under close watch. We have to acknowledge that Dalai Lama is not only a spiritual leader but also the political head of the Tibetan government-in-exile and needs to be accorded treatment and protocol reserved for heads of states. India should consider negotiating a treaty with any future government in free Tibet or with the Tibetan government-in-exile about return to Indian sovereignty of Hindu sacred sites of Mount Kailash and Mansarover lakes. From ancient times and certainly prior to 1951 Hindus from India have made pilgrimages to these Hindu Holy-lands without needing any visa or other formalities as there was not issue of Chinese or Tibetan sovereignty over these holy sites.
WHAT WOULD INDIA DO?
Indian government is notorious for dragging its feet in a re-active manner without ever planning for contingencies that are unforeseen. After waiting for whole week, the Indian government that survives on support from the CPM expressed vague noises and distress about use of force out of proportion in “Tibet that is autonomous region of China”. India, under current UPA dispension may not be able to boldly articulate its Tibet policy advantage or play its Tibet card boldly during the Beijing Olympics.
LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA:
The window of opportunity for India is great till August 24th 2008 for using her Tibet card skillfully in the international power games. Besides the moral, civilizational, religious and spiritual dimensions, there are important strategic and security implications for India. Tibetan issue will no longer die down. Free and independent Tibet’s is not necessarily a dream from past. The future political and administrative dispensions in Tibet may not be under the control of Communist China. India should not put all her eggs into the Chinese basket. Previous Indian policies on Tibet have failed and have proved counterproductive strategically. Considering the persistent and ongoing Chinese congagement activities of India, India needs to develop her spine and have a bold, changed strategic perspective on Tibet and on China.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Brigadier, Lt Col charged in fuel scam


The Indian Army is facing another scandal. Some top officials including a Brigadier and a Lt Col of the Leh-based 14-Corps have been chargesheeted for diverting fuel that was meant for troops in Siachen to line their own pockets.
The chargesheet, filed before Chief Judicial Magistrate of Leh earlier in the week, names Brigadier Sukhbir Singh, the then Deputy Director Supply and Transport, Lt Col DK Chaturvedi, the then Officer-in-Command of 406 Army Supply Corps, Captain Parveen Rawat (406 ASC), Subedars Major Sunder Singh and RK Nigam.
All the accused have been asked to appear before the court on April 4.
They been charged with accepting tankers filled with water as consignments of diesel and kerosene.
Investigations by the Jammu and Kashmir Police have revealed that the racket was being run in connivance with Indian Oil officials.
Reacting to the chargesheet, Lt Col AK Mathur, PRO, Indian Army, J&K Region said, "The case is three-year-old. Some other officers and civilians are also involved in the case. We have our own procedure and I cannot comment now on what action will be taken. I can't comment on how many others are involved. The J&K Police will give those details."
The integrity of the Army's logistics chain has already been under the scanner for a while.
Earlier, there was another case of diversion of special clothing and rations into the market in the same corps.
Recently, a Court of Inquiry was also initiated against an officer of Major General rank from the same command for alleged sexual harassment.

Monday, March 10, 2008

ELECTORAL VERDICT IN MALAYSIA: MORAL VICTORY FOR THE HINDRAF

By DR. ADITYANJEE

The answer my friend is blowing in the wind! The winds of change are indeed blowing strongly in Malaysia. The election results in Malaysia despite the allegations of vote rigging, electoral malpractices, last minute changes in election rules, reflect an electoral loss of historical proportions for Abdullah Badawi and 13-party ruling alliance the Barisan Nasional (National Front). Though the new federal government would still be formed by the Barisan Nasional, it will not command the towering two-thirds majority in the federal parliament. The opposition had only 20 seats in the federal parliament in the 2004 elections compared to 198 of BN. In 1999, under the sagging leadership of Mahathir Mohammad the BN had won 148 seats compared to 42 of the combined opposition. Whereas the 2004 elections were a landslide in favor of reform promising, soft-spoken Abdullah Badawi; this is a humiliating defeat for him personally. Abdullah, who replaced longtime UMNO leader Mahathir Mohamad in 2003, had led the ruling Front to a landslide victory in 2004, taking 91 percent of the seats in Parliament. Calling the mid-term elections now instead of May 2009 when the parliamentary elections were scheduled backfired on Abdullah Badawi who was hell-bent upon preventing the 60 years old charismatic opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim from contesting the elections as a potential Prime Ministerial candidate of the loosely combined opposition.

Most analysts and election observers were initially forecasting a mild protest vote by the Hindu-Malaysians and Chinese-Malaysians alone, predicting that ethnic Malays will cast their votes in favor of United Malays National Organization (UMNO) and BN. This analyst, in article written on March 4th 2008, had projected 80-90 seats in federal parliament for the combined opposition. However, the results suggest a 15% swing away from the UMNO among the ethnic Malay voters in the latest elections. This may be interpreted as a vote against rising crimes, rising prices, politics of cronyism, politics of institutionalized corruption in the majority Muslim Malay community. The federal election commission in Malaysia had been slow to announce the results except for the constituencies where UMNO had won. By the time this report is filed the BN tally in the federal parliament is 137, with 82 seats going to the opposition giving only a simple majority to the BN in 222 seat federal parliament with three results still pending. Initially Barisan Nasional edged closer towards the coveted two-thirds parliamentary majority of 148 by securing 137 seats, but the two-third majority was ultimately denied only for the second time in the history of independent Malaysia. This “simple victory” for Abdullah Badawi and BN is still a defeat because the state machinery and the official media were blatantly misused for electoral purposes by the BN. Standard precautionary plans to prevent multiple voting by marking every voter’s finger with indelible ink was cancelled by the election commission at the last moment. According to ridiculous claims by the EC chairman Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahman there was a conspiracy to import such ink and mark each voter’s finger to prevent them from voting!

The Inspector General of Police Musa Hassan has gone on the record in Kuala Lumpur to ban public rallies by victorious candidates to avoid repetition of the May 1969 ethnic riots. When the dust settles and all the results are finally announced, what would Abdullah Badawi do? That is a 64 million dollars question. Yes, the government will still be formed by BN/UMNO which has obtained a simple majority in the parliament. Yes, Abdullah Badawi won his own parliamentary seat. But would Abdullah Badawi re-emerge as the Prime Minister and leader of very much weakened UMNO or the dominant ethnic Malay party will choose a new leader? Abdullah claims that he will go before the ceremonial king tomorrow to stake his claim for forming new government. Will he have the moral courage to govern for the next five years?

MCA that had 31 seats in the dissolved parliament has now only 15 seats. Both Chinese dominated Democratic Action Party (DAP) and the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) or People’s Justice Party of Anwar Ibrahim of “Reformasi” fame have emerged as main opposition parties with PKR winning 31 seats and DAP getting 28. Islamic hardliner PAS has won 23 seats in the parliament. The state of Penang has gone to the (DAP) that is set to form the state level government in Penang. The state of Kelantan was already ruled by the Islamic hardliner PAS that retook the state in this election as well. In the northern state of Kedah, from where the former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad comes, PAS claimed a completely unanticipated victory. An opposition alliance of three parties won the state assembly in Perak. The state of Selangor witnessed the opposition victory as well. This means five out of 14 states have gone to the opposition instead of only one in 2004. In the capital Kuala Lumpur, opposition candidates have trounced BN candidates. Community Development Minister Shahrizat Abdul Jalil lost the Lembah Pantai parliamentary seat in the capital to Nurul Izzah Anwar, the daughter of the former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim who is not allowed to hold a public office till April 2008. Human rights activist, parliamentarian and lawyer Karpal Singh of DAP has won the Bukit Gelugor parliamentary seat by a comfortable 21,015-vote majority.

Hindu Rights Action Front (HINDRAF) leader M Manoharan, a lawyer by profession, won his election on DAP ticket from behind the bars having been arrested under the dreaded Internal Security Act. He won the Kota Alam Shah state seat in the state of Selangor, beating Ching Su Chen (BN) by a 7,184-vote majority. His arrest under ISA was “justified” by the apartheid state because HINDRAF leaders had the audacity to hold a public rally of 20,000 Hindu-Malaysians protesting against the excesses of the Islamic state. Public works Minister S. Samy Vellu, the discredited leader of the Malaysian Indians’ Congress (MIC) has lost to PKR’s Dr. D. Jeyakumar Devaraj his Sungai Siput parliamentary seat that he held for more than 30 years. Samy Vellu was totally and hopelessly out of touch with the concerns of ordinary Hindu-Malaysians whose temples were being demolished on a weekly basis by the UMNO led government, whose dead bodies were snatched and stolen by the Shariat authorities under false pretext that there was conversion to Islam before death. The MIC so far has won only 3 seats compared to nine seats it held in the federal parliament that was elected in 2004. Hindu–Malaysians were discriminated at every level and Samy Vellu chose to denounce the HINDRAF leaders. Abdullah Badawi’s despicable actions in labeling HINDRAF leaders as terrorists aligned to LTTE have miserably failed and actually backfired not only against the BN but also against the MIC.

A weakened BN headed by Abdullah Badawi will form yet another Government in Malaysia. The ruling coalition's performance is the worst since 1969, when it last lost its two-thirds majority in parliament in a result that triggered serious racial clashes. That time victories of DAP triggered attacks on Chinese-Malaysian by dagger-wielding Malay youths belonging to UMNO Youth. Since this time the electoral defeat of the BN is triggered by protest voting against BN by the Hindu -Malaysians, it is hoped that the law and order machinery in the state of Malaysia will work hard to prevent any revenge attacks against the Hindu-Malaysians. If Abdullah Badawi sticks to his pre-election rhetoric warnings about chaos and instability in case BN is defeated by a protest vote, will he control the law and order situation in next few weeks to prevent such ethnic riots directed against Hindu-Malaysians?

Will Abdullah Badawi give any representation to the shrunken MIC in the federal cabinet since most of the Hindu-Malaysians voted against BN this time? During the election campaign, Abdullah Badawi wanted the support of Chinese -Malaysians and Hindu-Malaysians so that they are well-represented in the federal cabinet! If he follows that flawed reasoning, he may not provide any representation to the defeated MIC marginalizing the Hindu-Malaysians further. However, after this humiliating defeat, Abdullah Badawi may face challenge for the leadership of the UMNO during its next annual meeting. Mahathir Mohammad who has been very critical of Badawi may try to reassert his influence in the UMNO by supporting an alternative new leadership during the next annual UMNO meeting. Badawi may not be able to stop the ultimate rise of former Islamist turned democracy and civil rights activist Anwar Ibrahim. There may be calls within UMNO to bring the charismatic Anwar Ibrahim back into the UMNO fold for the sake of “Malay supremacy”. For Anwar Ibrahim, this is sweet victory with his party PKR getting 31 seats compared to only one in 2004. Both his wife and daughter have won their respective seats. After April 2008, he may enter the parliament with his wife opting to resign her seat so as to enable him to contest a bye-election.

Denied two-thirds majority in parliament, Abdullah Badawi and the BN will not be able to bring constitutional amendments at the drop of a hat. A rejuvenated opposition will have to be consulted on every major policy decision. However, in the ultimate analysis this is a moral victory for the HINDRAF leaders. Among everything else, the elections results force the international community to salute the brave leaders of HINDRAF who had the tremendous courage to bring into open the systematic persecution of Hindu-Malaysians by the Islamized and apartheid state of Malaysia. More than 20,000 Hindu-Malaysians of ethnic Indian origin attended the rally organized by the HINDRAF group on November 25, 2007. Most Hindu-Malaysians feel that it was only after this mass rally organized by NGO Hindu Rights Action Front that the Malaysian government had actually conceded that there were problems being faced by the Hindu-Malaysian community. When government of India had expressed concerns about the sorry plight of Hindu-Malaysians of Indian ethnic origin, Abdullah Badawi had the nerve to claim that HINDRAF leaders are terrorists having ties with the LTTE.

The new BN government is well-advised to release all the arrested HINDRAF leaders and workers, withdraw cases against them under the repressive ISA and seriously address their genuine grievances. The new Malaysian government needs to stop demolishing Hindu temples, provide land for building of already demolished temples, stop stealing the dead-bodies of prominent Hindu-Malaysians under the garb of Shariat laws, provide educational and job opportunities to marginalized Hindu-Malaysians and dismantle the apartheid rules of New Economic Policy-II. Malaysian civil courts and the Supreme Court will have to re-assert their supremacy in the filed of justice for the citizens over the rulings of Shariat courts that can not be challenged currently. Abdullah Badawi, having eaten a crow, owes a personal apology to HINDRAF leaders for characterizing them as terrorists. HINDRAF will have to convert itself into a formal political party if the ethnicity based apartheid state in Malaysia continues to exist. If the apartheid laws and the New Economic Policy –II are dismantled, HINDRAF, DAP and PKR of Anwar Ibrahim should merge into a single multi-racial party in trying to bring about the birth of a new, post-racial, multi-religious and democratic Malaysia!

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Modernisation of the Indian Artillery

Gurmeet KanwalArtillery firepower had paved the way for victory during the Kargilconflict. Despite the lessons learnt in Kargil, modernisation of theartillery continues to lag behind. The last major acquisition of towedgun-howitzers was that of about 400 pieces of 39-calibre 155 mm FH-77Bhowitzers form Bofors of Sweden in the mid-1980s. This gun had proved itsmettle in the Kargil conflict. Just when a contract for 120 tracked and 180wheeled self-propelled (SP) 155 mm guns was about to be concluded afteryears of repeated trials, South African arms manufacturer Denel, a leadingcontender for the contract, was alleged to have been involved in acorruption scam in an earlier deal for anti-material rifles (AMRs). Newtenders will now be floated, setting the programme back at least three tofour years. Meanwhile, the mechanised forces will continue to remain withoutSP artillery support.Since the Bofors 155 mm Howitzer was introduced into service, theindigenously designed and manufactured 105 mm Indian Field Gun (IFG) and its(not so) light version, the Light Field Gun (LFG), have joined the 75/24Indian Mountain Gun, the 100 mm Russian field gun and the 122 mm Russianhowitzer on the obsolescence list. Approximately 180 pieces of 130 mm M46Russian medium guns have been successfully "up-gunned" to 155 mm calibrewith ordnance supplied by Soltam of Israel. The new barrel length of 45calibres has enhanced the range of the gun to about 40 km with extendedrange ammunition.A contract for the acquisition of two regiments of the 12-tube, 300mmSmerch multi-barrel rocket launcher (MBRL) system with 90km range was reported to have been signed with Russia's Rosoboronexport inearly-2006. This will be a major boost for the long-range firepowercapabilities of the army. If this weapon system had been available duringthe Kargil conflict, Pakistan's brigade HQ and forward airfield at Skarduand other targets deep inside POK could have been hit with impunity.Extended range (ER) rockets are being introduced for the 122 mm Grad MBRLthat has been in service for over three decades. The ER rockets will enhancethe weapon system's range from 22 to about 40 km. A Rs 5,000 crore contracthas also been signed for the serial production of the Pinaka MBRL weaponsystem, another DRDO project plagued by time delays and completed with helpfrom Larsen and Toubro and the Tatas.The probability of the next conventional war breaking out in the mountainsis far higher than of a war in the plains. With this in view, the artilleryrecently conceptualised a requirement for a light-weight towed howitzer of 155mm calibre for employment in the mountains. Neither the present Boforshowitzer nor its replacement will be capable of operations in the mountains.A light-weight 45-calibre 155 mm howitzer weighing less than 5,000 kg, witha light but adequately powered prime mover, is ideal for the mountains. Thegun-train should be capable of negotiating sharp road bends without the needto unhook the gun from the prime mover. The two British 45-calibre 155mmhowitzers that competed for the US contract for a similar howitzersome years ago – the UFH (Ultra-lightweight Field Howitzer) and the LTH(Light-weight Towed Howitzer) – could be considered for licensed productionwith transfer of technology. A request for proposals for ultra-light weighthowitzers to equip seven regiments was issued in mid-January 2008.The modernisation plan of tube artillery alone is likely to cost Rs 13,000crore. The major acquisitions will be of 400 towed howitzers of 155mmcalibre, with a barrel length of 52 calibres, costing about Rs 4,000crore,140 ultra-light weight 155 mm towed howitzers, with a barrel length of 45calibres, costing Rs 3,000 crore and 180 SP 155 mm howitzers costing Rs5,000 crore. The "Shakti" project for a command and control systems for theartillery, called Artillery Combat Command and Control System (ACCCS), hasreached the stage of maturity and is now being fielded up to the regimentallevel.The BrahMos supersonic cruise missile (Mach 2.8 to 3.0), with a precisionstrike capability, very high kill energy and range of 290 km, was inductedinto the army in July 2007. It is a versatile missile that can be launchedfrom TATRA mobile launchers and silos on land, aircraft and ships and,perhaps in future, also from submarines. 50 BrahMos missiles are expected tobe produced every year. Efforts are underway to further increase its strikerange. BrahMos Aerospace has orders worth Rs 3,500 crore from the army andthe navy, which has opted for the anti-ship as well as the land attackcruise missile (LACM) versions. These terrain hugging missiles are virtuallyimmune to counter measures due to their high speed and very low radar crosssection and are far superior to sub-sonic cruise missiles like Pakistan'sBabur. Chile, Kuwait, Malaysia and South Africa have shown interest inacquiring this missile.

Monday, March 3, 2008

MALAYSIAN ELECTIONS AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

By Dr. Adityanjee

Mr. Abdullah Badawi, the Prime Minster of Malaysia faced a scheduled parliamentary election in 2009. Not unexpectedly, on February 13th 2008 he announced mid-term elections one year ahead of schedule. He wanted to avoid an electoral contest in which the opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, a former Islamist turned democracy activist, could be allowed to participate as the leading opposition figure and possible Prime Ministerial candidate. Anwar Ibrahim faces ban from electoral scene till 2009 on trumped up charges of corruption and sodomy on behalf of previous Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad. Anwar Ibrahim might have pulled off an alternative, credible multi-racial political front by 2009 to confront the ruling coalition if the mid-term elections were not announced prematurely. Badawi seems to be using the stability, economic prosperity and continuation of Malay dominance to face electorate again on March 8th 2008. He has targeted the Malaysian civil society and the leaders of the (Hindu Rights Action Forum) HINDRAF who are in prison under the infamous Internal Security Act. Badawi had got the opposition leader Mr. Anwar Ibrahim also arrested a few weeks ago to prevent him from informally campaigning for the expected but not announced elections
India has genuinely tried to engage Malaysia since independence. India is currently trying to negotiate a free trade area with Malaysia. The Defense Minister AK Anthony visited Malaysia few weeks ago to develop military relations with that country despite claims of marginalization and oppression of Hindu Malaysians. A day after his visit, Malaysia announced new visa rules restricting entry of Indian Professionals in Malaysia. Though successive governments of India have truly considered Malaysia as a friendly Asian nation, the diplomatic sentiments have not been reciprocated by the successive Malaysian governments. Malaysia has consistently blocked India’s entry into ASEAN+6, ARF, APEC, East Asia Community on behest of China and Pakistan. Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad was very vocal in proposing anti-India entry parameters in these East Asian fora to keep India isolated. In fact Malaysia has been counter-balanced by Singapore that has welcomed India’s role as an ASEAN regional dialogue partner. Singapore is facilitating India’s entry into derivative East Asian and Asia-pacific institutions. Malaysia has always taken pro-Pakistan stance in international fora against vital Indian interests.
While denouncing India for the 1998 Pokhran II nuclear tests, Malaysia became a willing participant in Pakistan’s clandestine nuclear trade and commerce. Mr. Abdullah Badawi’s own son was allegedly front-running a shadow company for the benefit of AQ Khan's international nuclear Wal-Mart that benefited Pakistan and smuggled nuclear weapon components to North Korea, Libya, Syria and Iran. Details of these transactions are carefully documented by Adrian Levy and Catherine Clark-Scott in their best seller entitled “Deception: Pakistan, the United States, and the Secret Trade in Nuclear Weapons”. Also not widely known is the fact that Kuala Lumpur was the active planning and meeting ground for the Islamic terrorists who brought down the Twin Towers during the 9/11 attacks. It appears that after Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Malaysia has turned out to be the incubator of Jihadi terrorism in Asia.
In the Asian geo-political theatre, a de-facto China-Pakistan-Malaysia axis has emerged with its strong anti-India under-pinnings. Malaysia, like Pakistan is an artificially contrived product of British Colonialism. The British colonial territory of Peninsular Malaya was merged with Sabah and Sarawak states that constitute East Malaysia. Analogous to Pakistan, it has pre-Islamic Indic and Hindu heritage that Malay Muslim civil society vehemently refuses to accept and acknowledge unlike their Indonesian cousins. Both countries are part of the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) and tend to view international policies through the prism of Islamic Ummah. Both countries lack true democracy and have authoritarian, anti-minority constitutional provisions that have brought about ethnic cleansing of Hindu minority since independence from colonial Britain. This has reflected in demographic pattern of both these countries with declining Hindu minority population since the time of Independence from colonial power Britain. Meanwhile, China, in order to counter-balance US in the Islamic world, has gone out of the way to aggressively cultivate Islamic countries, including Pakistan, Iran, Sudan, Albania, Libya and Malaysia etc. It is no secret that China has cultivated Pakistan over the last four decades to contain India. With their similar hostile anti-India and anti-Hindu national mindsets, both Pakistan and Malaysia have become Chinese pawns in the international chess-board.
Mr. Badawi hopes to hold on to power in the March 8th 2008 federal elections. Four years ago, Mr. Badawi obtained more than two-third majority in national elections winning 200 seats conceding only 20 seats in the Malaysian parliament to the opposition. Mr. Badawi has gone on the record to say that Malaysian Indians might not vote for Barrisan Nasional this time. As a sop to Hindu-Malaysians, the Hindu festival of Thaipussam was declared a national holiday just before announcing the mid-term elections. The discredited MIC leader Sami Velu initially decided to not contest the elections having realized that he may not win this time. But ultimately, in the name of experience, he was persuaded to contest his seat by Abdullah Badawi to avoid giving any moral victory to HINDRAF leaders. Now, during the elections Sami Vellu who has been a minister in the Barrisan Nasional government for more than thirty years claims that the Malaysian government has not done enough for the Malaysian Indians!
It is widely predicted that though Barrisan Nasional will come back to power, it may not get two-third majority. It is likely that the loose opposition combine of Democratic Action Party, Kedilan (Justice) Party of Anwar Ibrahim and the Islamist PAS may together get a total of 80-90 seats in the national parliament. Last time when the ruling UMNO (United Malay National Organization) lost electorally in May 1969, there were racial riots with targeting of Chinese Malaysians. The youth wing of UMNO has been displaying spears and axes in their annual meetings to maintain the Malay supremacy. In this context, one may remember former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad ‘s overt threats in his book “The Malay Dilemma” that Malays will be forced to “run amok” if Malay supremacy is challenged. This time, in case of UMNO electoral losses, the potential targets of Malay mobs will be Hindu-Malaysians. The international community needs to anticipate racial and religious violence targeted against Hindu-Malaysians in the aftermath of UMNO defeat in the March 8th 2008 elections in Malaysia.
A wounded but victorious Abdullah Badawi and UMNO may show persistent hostility towards Hindu-Malaysians in the domestic arena. Genuine grievances of Hindu Malaysians may not be resolved after the elections. Cornered domestically, Malaysia led by Abdullah Badawi may draw closer into the undeclared CPM (China-Pakistan-Malaysia) axis and show its intense displeasure by striking at India’s interests in international arena with scorn and renewed vigor.
The de facto and de jure system of racial and religious apartheid needs to be dismantled in Malaysia. If the international community can criticize and demand reforms in South Africa for racial segregation and apartheid policies, we can certainly criticize Malaysian government for the same. Multi-lateral, carefully calibrated economic sanctions against Malaysia are warranted till the apartheid state is dismantled and the proposed constitutional reforms are implemented. The US, India and Japan are not morally justified in negotiating an FTA with Malaysia under current apartheid system when minorities are being systematically persecuted. Asian democracies like India and Japan need to take moral lead and use calibrated and targeted economic sanctions to change this system of apartheid in a fellow Asian nation.
All diplomatic means must be used to avoid any repetition of ethnic riots following declaration of results of the March 8th 2008 elections. Strong political message needs to be sent to the law-enforcement agencies of Malaysia (Police and Army included) that ethnic violence and genocide following a possible defeat in the March 2008 elections will not be tolerated. If such timely steps are not taken now, the whole of South-East Asia will be destabilized consequently. History will not forgive us for our failure to act in Malaysia at this crucial juncture.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

Israeli rifles appear in Kashmir


Israel made Tavor assault rifles have begun to appear in Indian administered Kashmir, with Indian troops using these in operations against guerrillas in the region.
The rifles developed by Israel for usage in urban warfare, are part of the India's strategy to modernise its army, especially while dealing with insurgencies in the country.
On Friday Indian troops in southern district Shopian of Indian administered Kashmir were seen holding TAR-21 (Tavor Assault Rifle for 21'st century).
The rifle which costs around US $6500 is one of the most modern assault rifles available in the world.
Tavor uses the compact Bull pup design and has improved hit accuracy.
It can accommodate a 30 round magazine and sustain a rate of fire of 750 - 900 rounds per minute.
The 2.8 kg dark green Tavor rifle is also designed for night fighting.
The army hopes that its ergonomics, reliability in heat and sand, and fast-point/ fast-shoot design might give them an edge in close-quarters shootouts and employment from inside vehicles.
The army hopes to have an edge over insurgents armed with AK rifles.
The Tavor rifles were designed by Israel Military Industries (IMI, now TAAS) company, in close cooperation with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) during 1990's.
In 2002 India signed a deal with Israel for the purchase of 3070 Tavor assault rifles worth US $ 20 million.
Army is on a modernisation spree and is trying to replace its aging weaponry particularly
Israel too has replaced their Colt M4/M16 rifles with compact Tavors.
The consignment of these rifles was given to Indian army after a long delay.
After signing the deal, Israel Military Industries (IMI) had only initially supplied 350-400 TAR-21s without grenade launchers to India's northern Special Frontier Force (SFF).
The rifles were declared 'operationally unsatisfactory' and India also claimed damages for delay.
However new supplies with improved designs followed.
According to reports, India currently has seven Special Forces battalions, which according to the army's newly released doctrine, will be employed for specialised tasks behind enemy lines, to fight insurgencies in Indian administered Kashmir and the northeastern states.
Some of these forces were trained by the Israelis in anti-insurgency operations, official reports said.
IMI had also supplied around 130 Galil 7.62 sniper riles and around 450,000 rounds of ammunition to the SFF and the army for $1.4 million in 2005.
It also showed interest in the newer version of Tavor Micro/ MTAR (9mm version) for its special forces and parachute regiments.
India is trying to replace the outdated World War II Stenguns and other similar weapons still in use with the army, paramilitary units and state police forces.
Georgia, Portugal and Israel are the only other countries that use variants of the Tavor rifle.